#151: Mastering Uncertainty – 7 Venture Secrets to Thriving in Chaos

What if your greatest asset in business was how you think under pressure?

In this episode, I dive into The Venture Mindset by Alex Dang and Ilya Strebulaev, unpacking seven transformative lessons drawn from the world of venture capital and deep-tech entrepreneurship. These principles aren’t just for investors—they’re a roadmap for anyone navigating uncertainty, from startup founders to corporate innovators.

Alex Dang, a veteran innovator, and Ilya Strebulaev, a leading academic in venture capital, combine decades of hands-on experience and rigorous research. Together, they reveal how to embrace risk, think strategically, and build ventures that thrive in chaotic environments.

As an entrepreneur and investor, I’ve found these lessons invaluable. This episode explores how to prepare your mind for contrarian thinking, align incentives for growth, and make bold decisions when it matters most. Whether you’re building groundbreaking technology or adapting to a disruptive market, these insights will reshape how you approach challenges.

Key Takeaways:

This episode covers seven critical lessons, including:

1️⃣ Home Runs Matter, Strikeouts Don’t: Embrace failure as a stepping stone to transformative success.
2️⃣ Prepare Your Mind for Contrarian Thinking: Spot opportunities others miss and thrive in uncertainty.
3️⃣ Bet on the Jockey, Not Just the Horse: Prioritize resilient founders over flashy ideas.
4️⃣ Double Down or Quit: Make disciplined decisions to invest or cut losses.
5️⃣ Get Outside the Four Walls: Source ideas from diverse networks and unexpected places.
6️⃣ Make the Pie Bigger: Align incentives to foster collaboration and shared success.
7️⃣ Great Things Take Time: Cultivate patience and a long-term vision to achieve exponential impact.

While this episode highlights actionable takeaways, The Venture Mindset is packed with even more insights and strategies for anyone looking to excel in unpredictable environments.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction: Why This Episode Matters
(01:20) - The Book’s Relevance for Entrepreneurs and Innovators
(02:02) - Author Spotlight: Alex Dang and Ilya Strebulaev
(04:15) - Book Overview: A Roadmap for Thriving in Uncertainty
(06:56) - Key Takeaway 1: Home Runs Matter, Strikeouts Don’t
(12:43) - Key Takeaway 2: Prepare Your Mind for Contrarian Thinking
(19:07) - Key Takeaway 3: Bet on the Jockey, Not Just the Horse
(24:00) - Key Takeaway 4: Double Down or Quit
(29:22) - Key Takeaway 5: Get Outside the Four Walls
(34:00) - Key Takeaway 6: Make the Pie Bigger
(38:53) - Key Takeaway 7: Great Things Take Time
(43:55) - Closing Reflections and Final Insights

Why Listen:

• Embrace Bold Thinking: Learn how to thrive in uncertainty with strategies from venture capitalists and entrepreneurs.
• Master Decision-Making: Equip yourself with tools to adapt and act decisively in chaotic environments.
• Drive Innovation and Growth: Gain insights into fostering collaboration, resilience, and long-term value creation.
• Practical Application: Reflect on actionable coaching questions tailored to your journey.

If these lessons resonate, I encourage you to explore The Venture Mindset in full. It’s more than a book—it’s your guide to navigating uncharted waters and building a futur

Transcript

00:00:00:00 - 00:00:18:19

Christian Soschner

How do you navigate uncharted waters? When every decision could make or break your future? That's the central question. The venture mind set by Alex Tang and Elias Herbalife, seeks to answer.

00:00:18:19 - 00:00:31:20

Christian Soschner

This book is not just for venture capitalists or founders. It's for anyone who must make decisions in uncertainty. Whether you are an innovator,

00:00:31:20 - 00:00:36:16

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a corporate leader, or tackling a sudden market shift.

00:00:36:18 - 00:00:42:24

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In a world of disruption and rapid change. Traditional playbooks fail.

00:00:42:24 - 00:00:52:17

Christian Soschner

Leaders face uncharted waters, where uncertainty is the only constant, and every move feels like a gamble.

00:00:52:17 - 00:01:05:13

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Whether you are building a startup, driving innovation in a legacy organization, or steering through an unexpected market shift, the stakes couldn't be higher.

00:01:05:15 - 00:01:10:17

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The wrong decision can mean losing momentum or worse, irrelevance.

00:01:10:17 - 00:01:17:19

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Alex Tang and Elias Travelife deliver a roadmap for thriving in uncertainty.

00:01:17:19 - 00:01:29:22

Christian Soschner

Drawing on decades of venture capital insights and success stories, they share how to embrace risk. Think strategically and spot opportunities others miss.

00:01:29:22 - 00:01:38:20

Christian Soschner

This book isn't just about success. It's about surviving and thriving in the most volatile environments.

00:01:38:22 - 00:01:46:21

Christian Soschner

In this episode, we will explore seven lessons from the venture mindsets that will reshape how you approach decision making.

00:01:46:21 - 00:01:51:00

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From embracing failure to betting on bold ideas.

00:01:51:02 - 00:02:02:06

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Whether you are leading a startup or an industry giant, these principles will help you thrive in uncharted waters. Let's dive in.

00:02:02:06 - 00:02:10:24

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what makes Alex Tang and Elias dive uniquely qualified to guide you through the principles of the venture mindset?

00:02:10:24 - 00:02:19:01

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It's their unparalleled combination of practical industry experience and academic expertise

00:02:19:01 - 00:02:22:21

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spanning decades of innovation and research.

00:02:22:21 - 00:02:29:11

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Alex Tang has spent nearly two decades at the forefront of technology and innovation

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at Amazon and AWS. He spearheaded the design and launch of groundbreaking businesses in e-commerce, supply chain and artificial intelligence.

00:02:42:09 - 00:02:51:01

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Later, as a partner at McKinsey and Company in Silicon Valley, he helped global executives build and scale new ventures.

00:02:51:01 - 00:02:59:10

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His deep understanding of operational execution and strategic leadership makes him a trusted advisor in the world of innovation.

00:02:59:12 - 00:03:04:20

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Alex holds an MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

00:03:04:22 - 00:03:15:06

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Elias Triblive is a renowned academic and the David S Lobel Professor of Private Equity at Stanford Graduate School of Business.

00:03:15:06 - 00:03:26:08

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As the founder of the Stanford GSB Venture Capital Initiative, he has spent years researching venture capital, private equity, and corporate finance.

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Elias work is widely published in top academic journals, and his expertise has earned him numerous accolades,

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with a Ph.D. in finance from London Business School. He preaches rigorous academic insights with real world applications.

00:03:44:07 - 00:03:51:06

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Together, Alex and Ilya bring a unique blend of hands on experience and cutting edge research.

00:03:51:06 - 00:04:00:10

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Alex knows how to turn it into reality, while Elias academic work and covers the patterns behind successful ventures.

00:04:00:12 - 00:04:14:20

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This combination ensures that the Venture Mindset offers not just theories, but actionable strategies tailored for entrepreneurs, investors, and innovators navigating uncertainty.

00:04:14:20 - 00:04:35:20

Christian Soschner

What if success in uncertainty wasn't just about survival, but thriving? That's the core promise of the Winter mindset, a toolkit to help innovators, entrepreneurs and investors make bold, calculated decisions when the stakes are high.

00:04:35:20 - 00:04:43:22

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The book builds on a compelling idea the rules of the game change when you step into uncharted waters.

00:04:43:22 - 00:04:48:05

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Whether it's a deep tech startup pushing the boundaries of science,

00:04:48:05 - 00:04:55:12

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or a legacy corporation adapting to disruptive shifts, the path to success isn't linear.

00:04:55:14 - 00:05:04:01

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It's chaotic. But chaos is fertile ground for opportunity, and this book helps you see it

00:05:04:01 - 00:05:22:23

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With lessons drawn from decades of venture capital experience and success. Stories like Airbnb, zoom and Space-X. The venture Mindset reveals how to embrace uncertainty, take strategic risks and transform vision into reality.

00:05:22:23 - 00:05:26:10

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Many decision makers struggle with uncertainty.

00:05:26:10 - 00:05:35:08

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Traditional methods are designed for predictability, not for the volatile environments of deep tech ventures or sudden market disruptions.

00:05:35:10 - 00:05:43:06

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This leaves entrepreneurs and leaders hesitant, often clinging to safe bets or outdated strategies

00:05:43:06 - 00:05:47:15

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while missing the exponential growth opportunities hidden in the chaos.

00:05:47:15 - 00:05:56:18

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The Venture Mindset offers a practical framework grounded in real world examples and academic rigor to help readers navigate the unknown.

00:05:56:18 - 00:06:07:23

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From building resilience to aligning incentives and evaluating risks. The book equips you to think like the world's most successful innovators

00:06:07:23 - 00:06:18:12

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without these tools. Decision makers risk falling behind in fast moving industries, where the gap between winners and losers grows wider every day.

00:06:18:12 - 00:06:33:10

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Here is what sets this book apart. It's not about playing it safe. It's about learning to see opportunity where others see risk, and acting decisively in moments of uncertainty.

00:06:33:10 - 00:06:42:12

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In this episode, you will hear seven lessons from the book tailored for deep tech entrepreneurs. Venture capitalists and innovators.

00:06:42:12 - 00:06:53:23

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But these are just the beginning. The first book offers a treasure trove of actionable insights and strategies to help you become a more confident, forward thinking leader.

00:06:53:23 - 00:06:56:10

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Let's dive into the lessons.

00:06:56:10 - 00:07:02:19

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Here is the first lesson from the book. Homeruns. Meter. Strikeouts. Don't

00:07:02:19 - 00:07:27:09

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picture stepping onto a baseball field knowing you are likely to miss nine out of ten swings. That's the reality of the game. But when that one swing connects, the ball soars over the fence and the crowd erupts.

00:07:27:11 - 00:07:36:06

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That one home run. It changes everything in business and investing. The same principle applies

00:07:36:06 - 00:07:48:01

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as the venture mindset emphasizes. Venture capitalists expect to fail most of the time, but when they win, they win big. Page five. In the book

00:07:48:01 - 00:08:02:20

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for entrepreneurs and venture capitalists, operating in the deep tech space means navigating uncertainty. Every decision is a swing at something new, untested and risky.

00:08:02:22 - 00:08:20:08

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And yes, there will be strikeouts. Failure isn't just a possibility. It's a certainty. But here's the key. You don't need every attempt to succeed. You need just a few big wins.

00:08:20:08 - 00:08:42:11

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Let's take a step back. Out of every 20 startups, only one typically delivers a 100 x return. That single win compensates for all the losses. As Bill Gurley wisely said, if you invest in something that doesn't work, you lose one time your money.

00:08:42:13 - 00:08:52:04

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But if you miss Google, you lose 10,000 times your money. Page eight. In the book.

00:08:52:04 - 00:09:01:19

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This mindset isn't just about tolerating failure. It's about embracing it as the price of admission to extraordinary success.

00:09:01:20 - 00:09:22:09

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Many businesses fear failure so deeply that they avoid risk altogether. They chase small wins, prioritize safety, and punish experimentation. But in doing so, they sabotage their chances of achieving transformational success.

00:09:22:09 - 00:09:45:15

Christian Soschner

Consider the Museum of Failure in Brooklyn, a tribute to ideas that didn't pan out. Among the exhibits are Chuck zero, a $400 juicer that no one needed, and MoviePass, and $9.95 a month subscription that burned through cash faster than anyone could imagine.

00:09:45:17 - 00:10:24:16

Christian Soschner

This fails acquiring remainders of bold bets gone wrong. You'll find more about it in the book on page four. Now compare this to zoom strikes in 2011. Derek Yuan had little more than a vision and a modest team. By 2020, zoom was a household name, beating giants like Microsoft and Google. Yuan's obsessive focus on customers, paired with investors who believed in his potential, propelled zoom into the stratosphere.

00:10:24:18 - 00:10:33:02

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As the venture mindset notes, Deshpande decided to invest in zoom even before seeing the pitch deck.

00:10:33:02 - 00:10:46:19

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The lesson here is clear take bold swings. Create a portfolio of bets, knowing most will fail when you win. The impact will eclipse every loss.

00:10:46:19 - 00:10:55:15

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The alternative? Playing it safe. Like so many companies that connect to the familiar. While the world changed around them,

00:10:55:15 - 00:10:57:01

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think of Kodak.

00:10:57:03 - 00:10:59:20

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Ignored digital photography.

00:10:59:20 - 00:11:05:09

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Xerox, for example. They let their revolutionary R&D get the dust.

00:11:05:09 - 00:11:11:10

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These companies missed their chance to swing big and the price was irrelevant.

00:11:11:10 - 00:11:24:11

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Here is the takeaway. Home runs define success, but only if you are willing to risk the strikeouts. In the words of a seasoned venture capitalist, prune your flowers.

00:11:24:13 - 00:11:26:05

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Don't let a thousand bloom.

00:11:26:05 - 00:11:30:20

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Success comes from focusing your energy on the bets that matter most.

00:11:30:20 - 00:11:37:08

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Let's bring this lesson home with three questions to reflect on your business and priorities.

00:11:37:08 - 00:11:45:14

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What about pets? Am I currently avoiding because I am afraid of failure?

00:11:45:16 - 00:12:02:24

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Reflect on where hesitation is holding you back from pursuing something transformative. Second one what opportunities in my portfolio have potential to be a homerun?

00:12:03:01 - 00:12:28:18

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Identify ventures or projects worth doubling down on and those worth cutting. And the third one. Am I creating a culture that embraces calculated risks? Consider whether your team feels empowered to experiment, fail, and learn.

00:12:28:20 - 00:12:43:17

Christian Soschner

The path to extraordinary success isn't smooth or predictable, but it rewards those who dare to swing. Remember, it's not the strikeouts that define you. It's the homeruns.

00:12:43:17 - 00:12:49:00

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Here is the lesson number two. Prepare your mind for contrarian thinking.

00:12:49:00 - 00:13:11:05

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Picture yourself walking into a room full of ideas, something wild and polished, even impossible. Others feel familiar, comfortable and logical. Which ones would you choose?

00:13:11:07 - 00:13:43:07

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Most people go for the familiar, conventional safe bet, but in the venture world, safe bets rarely lead to extraordinary outcomes. Success in deep tech often hides in the unexpected. As the venture mindset points out on page 50, many venture capitalists now think every email could lead to the next Google and some of the most celebrated investments, like Coinbase, began as cold emails.

00:13:43:12 - 00:14:23:03

Christian Soschner

Others dismissed as unconventional spam. Here is the challenge. Breakthroughs in deep tech rarely follow a straight line. Progress looks like nothing is happening for years. You're hustling, experimenting, and learning. But there is no visible success. Then suddenly the pieces start falling into place and exponential growth takes over. But here's the catch you can't just skip the first five years and start winning in year five.

00:14:23:05 - 00:14:27:18

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Those early years of struggle are the foundation for what's to come.

00:14:27:18 - 00:14:42:17

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They sharpen the team's focus, refine the product, and prepare everyone's minds for what's next. That's why openness to contrarian thinking and preparation are non-negotiable.

00:14:42:17 - 00:15:03:09

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Let's take a lesson from venture capitalists. They spent years developing a prepared mind, actively seeking ideas others might overlook. Firms like Excel Partners even formalize this approach, constantly thinking about what comes next and searching for companies that fit that thesis.

00:15:03:11 - 00:15:06:13

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You can read about it on page 85. In the book.

00:15:06:13 - 00:15:13:08

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Too often, teams fall into a dangerous trap, sticking to familiar patterns.

00:15:13:08 - 00:15:33:06

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They hire people with similar experiences, pursue projects that feel safe, and avoid taking risks on the unconventional. Over time, their thinking narrows and they miss the outliers that could transform their business.

00:15:33:06 - 00:15:40:02

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Remember the infamous mistake by a venture capitalist who ignored two Stanford students renting a garage?

00:15:40:04 - 00:15:51:16

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Those two students were Sergey Brin and Larry Page, and the garage was where Google was born. Decades later, that same investor admitted.

00:15:51:16 - 00:16:19:23

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Yes, even venture capitalists miss, and they miss quite often. That shift in the book, but the opposite story exists to Gary Tan responded to a code email containing just 0.05 Bitcoin, an odd pitch at best. Back in 2011, he took a chance, investing $300,000 in what became Coinbase.

00:16:20:00 - 00:16:55:09

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Within a few years, that investment turned into more than half $1 billion more of it. Page 50. In the book, the lesson here is keep an open mind. Train yourself to spot opportunities others dismiss. Build diverse networks. Hire people with different backgrounds and create a culture that values unconventional ideas. As the Venture Mindset notes, networking is not just about numbers.

00:16:55:11 - 00:17:23:06

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It's about quality and diversity. Page 38. In the book. But be careful. Even the appropriate mind can fall victim to bias. It's easy to overlook an unusual pitch because it doesn't fit the norm. It's tempting to ignore someone who doesn't match the pattern of success. But biases can spread like viruses. Limiting what you see and ultimately costing you opportunities.

00:17:23:06 - 00:17:58:05

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Here is the takeaway. Openness and preparation are your superpowers. In a world of uncertainty. In the words of Thomas Jefferson, the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have. It's also a quote from the book on page 77. Hustling doesn't guarantee success into Venture World, but it prepares you for the moment when magic happens. Let's wrap this lesson up with three coaching questions to help you reflect on how you can prepare your mind for contrarian thinking.

00:17:58:07 - 00:18:08:10

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The first one. Am I surrounding myself with diverse perspectives?

00:18:08:12 - 00:18:38:18

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Think about your team, your network, and your hiring process. Where can you invite new viewpoints? Second one. What opportunities have I dismissed because they seemed too unconventional? Revisit a pitch or project that didn't fit your expectations. What might you have missed?

00:18:38:20 - 00:19:07:02

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And the third one. Is my culture open to experimentation and learning from failure? Consider whether your team feels empowered to explore, fail, and adapt. Prepared minds find opportunities others overlook. It's not just about thinking differently, it's about acting differently. The question is, what will you do to prepare?

00:19:07:02 - 00:19:22:08

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And here we are with the first lesson. Back on the jockey. Not just the horse. Imagine placing a bet in a high stakes race.

00:19:22:08 - 00:19:29:13

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The focus isn't on the horse, but the jockey. The one with the skill, vision and ability to adapt.

00:19:29:13 - 00:19:37:22

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In the world of venture building. This analogy holds true. The best ideas can fail. Without the right people to bring them to life.

00:19:37:24 - 00:19:52:17

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As the venture mindset emphasizes. Always consider investing in the great a person with a great idea. Never invest in a great person with a great idea. In the book on page 223.

00:19:52:17 - 00:20:00:16

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In deep tech, this principle is a cornerstone of success. Founders often work in environments of constant uncertainty.

00:20:00:16 - 00:20:09:08

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Technologies may require years to refine. Markets might shift unpredictably, and the path forward is really clear.

00:20:09:10 - 00:20:20:01

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In such conditions, execution matters more than initial plans. Only a resilient, adaptable team can transform a bold year into a thriving enterprise.

00:20:20:03 - 00:20:30:23

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Consider the story of slack. The company didn't start as the communication tool we know today. It began as a gaming platform and it failed.

00:20:30:23 - 00:20:41:12

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Yet Stewart Butterfield and his team refused to quit. They pivoted, building on their existing technology, to create one of the most widely adopted workplace tools.

00:20:41:12 - 00:20:49:11

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Slack's journey underscores the critical truth. The team's resilience often determines the outcome. Between 1990.

00:20:49:13 - 00:21:02:02

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Slack was eventually acquired by Salesforce for $27 billion. Success on this scale comes from placing trust in founders with the vision and capability to navigate challenges.

00:21:02:02 - 00:21:07:16

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Many organizations still focus more on ideas and strategies than the people behind them.

00:21:07:16 - 00:21:18:10

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In structured environments with established processes, individuals may be interchangeable, but in the startup environment filled with uncertainty. This approach can be fatal.

00:21:18:10 - 00:21:33:12

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Deep tech founders face unique pressures. They must solve problems that haven't been solved by anybody ever before. Often in markets that don't yet exist. Without the right mindset, teams can falter under these conditions.

00:21:33:12 - 00:21:42:14

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As the venture mindset notes, innovation is a team sport without the right people. Even the best ideas fail. Page 245. In the book,

00:21:42:14 - 00:21:53:05

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Slack's journey is living. Proof to this. Butterfield's team adapted, innovated and intimately created the product to transformed workplace communication.

00:21:53:05 - 00:22:05:05

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A more traditional approach might have abandoned the project after its initial failure, but instead investors trusted the founders ability to pivot and deliver results.

00:22:05:07 - 00:22:23:09

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When evaluating a startup or venture to focus belongs on the team's vision, grit, and adaptability. Leaders like Butterfield demonstrate that a resilient team can take an idea, no matter how modest or unpolished, and create lasting impact.

00:22:23:09 - 00:22:27:00

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Overlooking the importance of the team is a common mistake.

00:22:27:00 - 00:22:38:06

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Stories of startups with promising ideas but poorly aligned leadership are cautionary tales. Execution drives outcomes and execution starts with the people.

00:22:38:06 - 00:22:44:09

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Here is the insight. Ideas evolve, but great teams are built to adapt.

00:22:44:09 - 00:22:55:03

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As General George Torrio once said, a great a person with a great idea will always outperform a great person with a great idea. Page hundred 23.

00:22:55:03 - 00:22:55:17

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In the book.

00:22:55:17 - 00:23:01:21

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Let's wrap up this lesson with three questions to consider when evaluating a team. A leadership.

00:23:01:21 - 00:23:07:09

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Is the team capable of navigating ambiguity?

00:23:08:16 - 00:23:16:12

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Reflect on whether they've demonstrated the ability to adapt and problem solving uncertain conditions.

00:23:16:22 - 00:23:21:03

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How do the founders respond to setbacks?

00:23:22:12 - 00:23:30:00

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Think about their resilience, whether failure motivates them to innovate or causes them to retreat.

00:23:31:00 - 00:23:36:16

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That's the ecosystem. Attract and support exceptional talent.

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Consider whether the environment fosters growth for teams willing to take a high risk, high reward opportunities. Betting on the right people transforms uncertainty into opportunity.

00:23:51:08 - 00:23:58:02

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Keep the quenches demand leaders who can inspire teams and execute boldly. The question remains.

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Who will rise to the challenge?

00:24:00:08 - 00:24:06:15

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Lesson number four. That we're done or quit. Know when to raise or fold.

00:24:06:15 - 00:24:24:20

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Picture a high stakes poker game. You're holding a promising hand, but the cards on the table don't look good. Do you raise, fold, or wait for the next turn? Success in venture building is remarkably similar.

00:24:24:20 - 00:24:30:24

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Knowing when to double down or quit can mean the difference between a unicorn and the colossal failure.

00:24:31:01 - 00:24:33:01

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As the venture mindset puts it,

00:24:33:01 - 00:24:46:11

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smart investors plant the seed and nurture the startup with more and more cash. With every round, they can double down or quit. Read more about it on page 282. In the book.

00:24:46:11 - 00:24:57:14

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Deep tech ventures operate in environments where the stakes are sky high. Developing revolutionary technologies takes years of effort and burns through substantial resources.

00:24:57:16 - 00:25:04:21

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There is no guarantee of success, but there are opportunities to make informed decisions at key milestones.

00:25:04:21 - 00:25:18:01

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The ability to evaluate progress and act decisively, either increasing investment or cutting losses, is a hallmark of the venture mindset. Consider Airbnb's extraordinary journey.

00:25:18:01 - 00:25:29:18

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The company's first funding came from Sequoia Capital, which invested $600,000 in 2009, valuing Airbnb at just $2.5 million.

00:25:29:20 - 00:25:43:19

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Over the years and passed critical milestones, expanding to thousands of cities attracted millions of bookings and eventually reaching $100 billion valuation at its IPO.

00:25:43:19 - 00:25:56:07

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At every stage, Sequoia and other investors evaluated the company's progress and chose to double down. Their patience and strategic capital allocation paid off handsomely.

00:25:56:09 - 00:26:01:16

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Many organizations struggle with making disciplined decisions about resource allocation.

00:26:01:16 - 00:26:09:06

Christian Soschner

Teams often get trapped in the escalation of commitment, continuing to fund projects that are clearly failing.

00:26:09:06 - 00:26:23:10

Christian Soschner

Behavioral scientists have studied this phenomenon across industries, from corporate strategies to military conflicts. The result is the same wasted money, wasted time, and wasted opportunity.

00:26:23:12 - 00:26:33:12

Christian Soschner

In traditional industries, decision makers tend to wait for all the information before acting. But by the time the picture is clear, the opportunity may be gone.

00:26:33:12 - 00:26:45:21

Christian Soschner

Sequoia did wait to see if Airbnb vision would succeed before committing further. Instead, the firm staged its investments, acting on new information at every round of funding.

00:26:45:21 - 00:26:54:18

Christian Soschner

Each milestone brought risks such as regulatory scrutiny or guest complaints, but the investors remained focused on the long term potential.

00:26:54:18 - 00:27:07:24

Christian Soschner

Staged investments are the cornerstone of the venture mindset. Breaking large decisions into smaller ones allows for greater flexibility, ensuring that resources are directed to the most promising opportunities.

00:27:07:24 - 00:27:15:00

Christian Soschner

As the book notes, you can't play too safe and stay in the game. On page 284.

00:27:15:00 - 00:27:25:02

Christian Soschner

This approach applies to everything from tech startups to industries like pharmaceuticals, where high risk projects are funded in phases to maximize optionality.

00:27:25:04 - 00:27:29:03

Christian Soschner

The alternative failing to adapt, leads to stagnation.

00:27:29:05 - 00:27:39:24

Christian Soschner

Too often, teams continue projects out of emotional attachment, a sunk cost by us draining resources that could be redirected to more viable opportunities.

00:27:40:01 - 00:27:55:20

Christian Soschner

Successful investors don't just bet on a year, they bet on the option to bet later. Sequoia's $600,000 seed investment in Airbnb was just the beginning of a 240 million total commitment.

00:27:55:20 - 00:28:02:22

Christian Soschner

The firm's discipline and foresight enabled it to win one of the greatest VC bets of all time.

00:28:02:24 - 00:28:19:12

Christian Soschner

Consider these three coaching questions to bring this lesson into your own decision making. What milestones determine whether a project deserves continued support?

00:28:19:14 - 00:28:29:14

Christian Soschner

Define clear checkpoints for evaluating progress and outcomes. Second, one.

00:28:29:16 - 00:28:38:22

Christian Soschner

Allocating resources based on potential upside or past investment.

00:28:38:24 - 00:28:47:20

Christian Soschner

Challenge sunk cost bias by focusing on future returns rather than prior commitments.

00:28:47:22 - 00:28:54:04

Christian Soschner

How can decisions be staged to retain flexibility?

00:28:54:06 - 00:29:03:15

Christian Soschner

Explore ways to break big investments into smaller, manageable tranches to maximize optionality.

00:29:03:17 - 00:29:19:08

Christian Soschner

Knowing when to double down or quit separates the visionary from the hesitant. The ability to act decisively while remaining flexible drives exponential outcomes. The question is, are you ready to play the long game?

00:29:19:08 - 00:29:24:00

Christian Soschner

There is lesson number five. Get outside the four walls.

00:29:24:00 - 00:29:30:22

Christian Soschner

Imagine finding a diamond in the rough. Hidden in a place no one thought to look.

00:29:30:22 - 00:29:42:15

Christian Soschner

In the venture world, these hidden gems often come from unexpected sources. Success favors those willing to step outside their comfort zones and search where others don't.

00:29:42:15 - 00:29:57:16

Christian Soschner

As the venture mindset points out. Deals like Dropbox happen in garages, coffee shops, and demo days, not in the confines of a corporate office. Read more about it on page 34. In the book.

00:29:57:16 - 00:30:10:22

Christian Soschner

Breakthroughs really come from predictable places in deep tech, where innovation thrives on diversity of thought and collaboration, and the ability to solicit use from unconventional settings is critical.

00:30:10:22 - 00:30:18:08

Christian Soschner

Networking across disciplines, geographies, and industries creates opportunities that wouldn't exist otherwise.

00:30:18:08 - 00:30:24:19

Christian Soschner

Let's look again at the story of Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency platform in the world.

00:30:24:19 - 00:30:31:02

Christian Soschner

Its journey began with something most professionals overlook a cold email.

00:30:31:04 - 00:30:40:17

Christian Soschner

Gary, ten, received an unsolicited message containing 0.05 Bitcoin, a currency barely anyone had heard of in 2012.

00:30:40:17 - 00:30:51:05

Christian Soschner

Despite its suspicious appearance, Gary read on and decided to invest $300,000 in what became later Coinbase.

00:30:51:05 - 00:30:57:11

Christian Soschner

That cold email turned into a return of over half $1 billion.

00:30:57:11 - 00:31:06:15

Christian Soschner

This story illustrates a powerful truth opportunities don't always knock on the front door. Sometimes they arrive in your inbox.

00:31:06:15 - 00:31:18:09

Christian Soschner

Many organizations and investors fall into the trap of limiting the ideas sourcing to familiar networks. While it feels safe, this approach creates blind spots

00:31:18:09 - 00:31:23:20

Christian Soschner

Without diverse input. Critical innovations may never surface.

00:31:23:20 - 00:31:35:23

Christian Soschner

Relying solely on trusted connections can be costly. For instance, numerous investors missed out on Google because of internal biases and lack of openness to unexpected pitches.

00:31:36:00 - 00:31:45:17

Christian Soschner

As the book highlights, every email could lead to the next Google. Dismissing cold outreach could mean passing on the next transformational company.

00:31:45:17 - 00:32:00:07

Christian Soschner

The venture mindset emphasizes active and unconventional networking. From Sequoia's legendary Hansen search for WhatsApp founders in Mountain View to carry towns willingness to entertain cold emails, the lesson is clear.

00:32:00:07 - 00:32:05:15

Christian Soschner

Actively seek out new ideas and foster openness to unorthodox approaches.

00:32:05:17 - 00:32:10:23

Christian Soschner

Failing to embrace this approach can leave valuable opportunities untapped.

00:32:10:23 - 00:32:39:07

Christian Soschner

Many of the world's most transformative ideas have originated from unlikely places, ignoring coach pitches and orthodox collaborations or diverse networks narrows the chance of finding the next big thing. Here is a nugget. Hidden opportunities exist everywhere, but only for those willing to search for them. As the venture mindset emphasizes, good works are good fishermen.

00:32:39:09 - 00:32:42:07

Christian Soschner

Great VCs are also hunters.

00:32:42:07 - 00:32:50:09

Christian Soschner

To integrate this lesson into practice. Consider these three coaching questions.

00:32:50:10 - 00:32:56:08

Christian Soschner

How diverse is the current idea flow?

00:32:56:10 - 00:33:06:06

Christian Soschner

Reflect on whether inputs come from a wide range of industries, backgrounds and networks.

00:33:06:08 - 00:33:14:18

Christian Soschner

What systems are in place to review unsolicited opportunities?

00:33:14:20 - 00:33:25:21

Christian Soschner

Evaluate whether there is an effective process to screen cold emails or pitches, ensuring no potential game is overlooked.

00:33:25:23 - 00:33:32:18

Christian Soschner

Where can unconventional connections be fostered?

00:33:32:20 - 00:33:45:06

Christian Soschner

Explore untapped avenues such as a niche conference. Interdisciplinary collaborations are emerging markets.

00:33:45:08 - 00:33:57:23

Christian Soschner

Openness to unexpected opportunities separates great innovators from the rest. The question is where will you search next?

00:33:58:00 - 00:34:05:14

Christian Soschner

Lesson number six make the pie bigger. Align incentives for collective growth.

00:34:05:14 - 00:34:24:24

Christian Soschner

What motivates someone to work tirelessly, even in the face of uncertainty? It's not just money. It's the promise of shared success. When teams know their hard work leads to rewards they can truly own, everything changes.

00:34:24:24 - 00:34:40:23

Christian Soschner

As the Venture Mindset notes, by designing smart contracts, we see make founders upside essentially unlimited while protecting them against downside risks arising. Tide lifts all boats. Page 211.

00:34:40:23 - 00:35:00:15

Christian Soschner

One of Silicon Valley's secrets to success is simple yet profound. Align incentives so that everyone benefits. This mentality, most visibly in stock options, encourages collaboration, loyalty, and extraordinary effort. Consider Intel.

00:35:00:17 - 00:35:16:22

Christian Soschner

When Intel pioneered the use of stock options for all employees, it shocked the business world. Previously, such rewards were reserved for executives. But Intel's founders believed ownership should extend to every team member.

00:35:16:22 - 00:35:33:14

Christian Soschner

The result? Employees became emotionally and financially invested in the company's success. Apple quickly followed, and the results speak for themselves. Both companies thrived and created waves of innovation that transformed industries.

00:35:33:16 - 00:35:41:04

Christian Soschner

Page 215. In the book, another example not in the book, Nvidia

00:35:41:04 - 00:35:49:08

Christian Soschner

known for its revolutionary GPUs. Nvidia has minted thousands of millionaires through its employee stock option plans.

00:35:49:08 - 00:35:56:04

Christian Soschner

Stories abound of engineers who started with modest means and retired with life changing wealth.

00:35:56:06 - 00:36:04:16

Christian Soschner

This alignment of incentives motivates teams to go above and beyond. Knowing the hassle directly contributes to their future.

00:36:04:16 - 00:36:20:10

Christian Soschner

But here is the challenge. In many organizations, incentives are misaligned. Owners and executives retain most of the rewards, while employees receive little beyond a paycheck. The impact, disengagement and stagnation.

00:36:20:10 - 00:36:32:11

Christian Soschner

As the venture mindset points out. In failing companies, owners are often greedy and they end up owning a lot of little or even everything of nothing. Page 211.

00:36:32:11 - 00:36:38:13

Christian Soschner

Deep tech ventures, with their long timelines and high risks, demand exceptional commitment.

00:36:38:15 - 00:36:49:11

Christian Soschner

Without meaningful rewards, it's unrealistic to expect employees to embrace the relentless grind. Why should they give their all if the benefits are reserved to a select few?

00:36:49:11 - 00:36:52:10

Christian Soschner

Aligning incentives changes everything.

00:36:52:10 - 00:36:56:05

Christian Soschner

Silicon Valley leaders like Intel and Apple understood this early.

00:36:56:05 - 00:37:02:03

Christian Soschner

They created systems where employees shared in the upside, fostering loyalty and innovation.

00:37:02:03 - 00:37:05:09

Christian Soschner

Stock options became more than just financial instruments.

00:37:05:09 - 00:37:13:19

Christian Soschner

They became symbols of trust and empowerment. When teams know their contributions lead to shared success, their engagement soars.

00:37:13:19 - 00:37:23:19

Christian Soschner

Contrast this with companies that don't share rewards. Greedy ownership motivates teams, turning potential innovators into clock punchers.

00:37:23:19 - 00:37:35:17

Christian Soschner

This difference in mentality often separate thriving organizations from those that stagnate or collapse. Here is an insight. A bigger pie fits everyone

00:37:35:17 - 00:37:37:05

Christian Soschner

by aligning incentives.

00:37:37:06 - 00:37:42:23

Christian Soschner

Companies unlock unprecedented commitment, creativity, and results.

00:37:43:00 - 00:37:49:07

Christian Soschner

Nvidia's culture of shared success demonstrates how collective growth can drive exponential innovation.

00:37:49:07 - 00:38:08:04

Christian Soschner

Reflect on these three coaching questions to assess how well incentives are aligned in your own ventures. The first one to all stakeholders, founders, employees and investors have skin in the game.

00:38:08:06 - 00:38:16:11

Christian Soschner

Evaluate whether this structure ensures shared rewards for collective effort doesn't mean everybody needs to invest money.

00:38:16:13 - 00:38:24:11

Christian Soschner

Are the incentives significant enough to inspire extraordinary contributions?

00:38:24:11 - 00:38:32:10

Christian Soschner

Small token rewards won't motivate teams in high stakes environments.

00:38:32:12 - 00:38:43:06

Christian Soschner

Test the system. Encourage loyalty and long term thinking. Consider whether employees feel connected to the broader mission and vision.

00:38:43:11 - 00:38:53:00

Christian Soschner

Aligned incentives create the foundation for innovation and growth. The question is how big with the pipe? And two will share in it.

00:38:53:06 - 00:38:57:00

Christian Soschner

And the final lesson great things take time.

00:38:57:02 - 00:39:28:08

Christian Soschner

Think about planting a tree. For years it looks like nothing is happening. Just a sapling struggling against the wind. Then one day it bursts into bloom, bearing fruit. For decades. Building something great, especially in deep tech, follows the same principle. It requires patience and the long term vision.

00:39:28:08 - 00:39:37:09

Christian Soschner

As the venture mindset puts it, venture capitalists bet on tectonic shifts that take time to mature and realize full impact.

00:39:37:09 - 00:39:44:03

Christian Soschner

Going in early and with patience is the VC mindset. Credo. Page 237.

00:39:44:03 - 00:39:51:22

Christian Soschner

The allure of quick wins often tempts decision makers to prioritize short term gains over long term value creation.

00:39:51:22 - 00:39:55:17

Christian Soschner

But deep tech innovations don't follow this timeline.

00:39:55:17 - 00:40:05:16

Christian Soschner

Transformative breakthroughs those capable of disrupting entire industries require years of research, development, and iteration.

00:40:05:16 - 00:40:15:05

Christian Soschner

Consider Space-X. Founded in 2002, it took nearly a decade for Elon Musk's rocket company to achieve commercial success.

00:40:15:05 - 00:40:21:23

Christian Soschner

In its early years. Space-X faced repeated failures, including three failed launches in a row.

00:40:21:23 - 00:40:25:03

Christian Soschner

By 2008, the company was nearly bankrupt.

00:40:25:03 - 00:40:31:21

Christian Soschner

Yet Musk's persistence paid off when the fourth launch succeeded, securing a critical NASA contract.

00:40:31:21 - 00:40:43:08

Christian Soschner

Today, SpaceX is not only profitable, but has redefined space exploration, becoming the first private company to launch astronauts into orbit.

00:40:43:10 - 00:40:47:22

Christian Soschner

This journey was only possible because of a long term mindset.

00:40:47:24 - 00:40:54:16

Christian Soschner

Many ventures and their backers fall into the trap of expecting immediate results.

00:40:54:16 - 00:41:02:17

Christian Soschner

This mindset can kill deep tech projects prematurely, robbing the world of potentially life changing innovations.

00:41:02:17 - 00:41:08:07

Christian Soschner

Short termism doesn't align with the realities of creating disruptive technologies.

00:41:08:07 - 00:41:12:24

Christian Soschner

The impatience for quick returns often leads to poor decisions,

00:41:12:24 - 00:41:17:13

Christian Soschner

such as cutting funding for promising but slow developing projects.

00:41:17:13 - 00:41:27:01

Christian Soschner

Teams lose morale. Investors lose confidence and groundbreaking ideas. They never reach their potential.

00:41:27:01 - 00:41:31:24

Christian Soschner

The venture mindset champions patience and staged investments.

00:41:31:24 - 00:41:37:18

Christian Soschner

Like Space-X, successful ventures evolve through disciplined, long term support.

00:41:37:18 - 00:41:47:18

Christian Soschner

Early failures are not the end. They are part of the journey. As the book notes, you can't rush tectonic shifts. They take time to reveal the full impact.

00:41:47:18 - 00:42:00:02

Christian Soschner

On page 237, this principle is echoed across other industries like pharmaceuticals, where drug development spans decades but can result in life saving breakthroughs.

00:42:00:04 - 00:42:10:10

Christian Soschner

Abandoning long term opportunities for immediate wins might yield short term gains, but it sacrifices the exponential impact that comes from staying the course.

00:42:10:10 - 00:42:18:00

Christian Soschner

Without this long term vision, the next basics Moderna or Nvidia might never see the light of day.

00:42:18:00 - 00:42:23:12

Christian Soschner

Here is an insight. Long term success demands long term thinking.

00:42:23:12 - 00:42:30:09

Christian Soschner

Deep tech founders and investors must embrace the patience required to create value over time.

00:42:30:11 - 00:42:37:23

Christian Soschner

As Spacexs journey illustrates, great things take time, but they are always worth it.

00:42:38:00 - 00:42:46:19

Christian Soschner

Reflect on these three final questions to align your strategy with a long term mindset.

00:42:46:21 - 00:42:58:03

Christian Soschner

Are investments and decisions focused on short term profitability or long term value creation?

00:42:58:05 - 00:43:06:15

Christian Soschner

Challenge yourself to prioritize enduring impact over immediate returns.

00:43:06:17 - 00:43:16:07

Christian Soschner

What milestones signal real progress? Even if success feels distant?

00:43:16:09 - 00:43:36:08

Christian Soschner

Establish clear, measurable goals to maintain confidence during the slow growth phases. And the third question. Am I prepared to persist through failures to achieve ultimate success?

00:43:36:10 - 00:43:41:23

Christian Soschner

Evaluate your tolerance for setbacks, knowing they are part of the path to breakthroughs.

00:43:41:23 - 00:43:55:08

Christian Soschner

Patience isn't just a virtue, it's a strategy. The question is, how far are you willing to go to create something truly extraordinary?

00:43:55:10 - 00:44:06:06

Christian Soschner

So let's prop today's episode up. The venture mindset isn't just an ordinary tour guide. It's a playbook for thriving in uncertainty.

00:44:06:06 - 00:44:16:16

Christian Soschner

Let's distill its essence into actionable insights. Here are my major lessons from the book. The first one, home runs matter. Strikeouts. Don't.

00:44:16:16 - 00:44:26:00

Christian Soschner

Failure is inevitable, but a single big win can make all the difference. The second lesson.

00:44:26:02 - 00:44:28:23

Christian Soschner

Prepare your mind for contrarian thinking.

00:44:28:23 - 00:44:32:09

Christian Soschner

Be ready to spot opportunities. Others miss.

00:44:32:09 - 00:44:36:11

Christian Soschner

The first one. Bet on the jockey, not the horse.

00:44:36:11 - 00:44:41:08

Christian Soschner

A great team can adapt and thrive even if the initial idea doesn't work.

00:44:41:10 - 00:44:44:23

Christian Soschner

The fourth one. Double down or quit.

00:44:44:23 - 00:44:49:22

Christian Soschner

Strategic capital allocation ensures you scale the right opportunities.

00:44:49:22 - 00:44:53:11

Christian Soschner

Number five get outside the four boards.

00:44:53:11 - 00:44:59:23

Christian Soschner

Innovation often comes from unexpected places. Most networks and code outreach matter.

00:44:59:23 - 00:45:08:03

Christian Soschner

The second one. Make the pie bigger. Align incentives to encourage collaboration and loyalty.

00:45:08:05 - 00:45:11:22

Christian Soschner

Hence the final lesson. Great things take time.

00:45:11:24 - 00:45:17:01

Christian Soschner

Patience is key to realizing the full potential of deep tech ventures.

00:45:17:03 - 00:45:31:08

Christian Soschner

Each of these lessons offers a blueprint for navigating risk, evaluating opportunities, and building lasting value in ventures. Whether it's a founder, investor, or corporate leader.

00:45:31:10 - 00:45:52:13

Christian Soschner

Here is what resonates the most with me. This book reinforced the importance of focusing on what truly matters in building companies and investing in them. The emphasis on disciplined decision making, resilience, and long term thinking felt like a masterclass for anyone striving to make an impact.

00:45:52:15 - 00:46:11:13

Christian Soschner

The real world examples were inspiring and relatable. If there's one area where I wished for more, it would be deeper dives into cross-industry applications. When the lessons are universal, I would have loved more examples outside tech and venture capital. For example, from the corporate worlds.

00:46:11:15 - 00:46:23:08

Christian Soschner

If you are ready to dive deeper into these transformative ideas, pick up a copy of The Venture Mindset today. You can find the link to Amazon in the description of this episode.

00:46:23:08 - 00:46:30:10

Christian Soschner

To recap, we have explored seven lessons that can reshape how you approach uncertainty, risk, and growth.

00:46:30:10 - 00:46:40:03

Christian Soschner

But remember, this episode only scratches the surface. The book is packed with even more insights to help you build and scale with confidence.

00:46:40:03 - 00:46:53:03

Christian Soschner

Stay tuned for the next episode, where we will dive even deeper into the venture mindset with an interview of Alex Tang. Until then, keep learning, keep growing, and stay bold.